Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Hi-Tech Industrial Research Institute.Zhang Xiaofei believes that the market for electric logistics vehicles has started, and various favorable policies are like blowers. 2015 is the year of electric logistics vehicles. The total output of electric logistics vehicles in China is 44,500, and this trend will be even greater in the next few years. It is predicted that the output will reach 100,000 in 2016.According to the data of GGII, in the first half of this year, the number of orders for pure electric logistics vehicles has exceeded 70,000. Due to the policy, car companies are waiting to see for the time being and have not yet started mass shipment.GGII predicts that in the next few years, local policies will be introduced one after another, and the product quality will be gradually improved. Electric logistics vehicles are another rapid growth field after small and medium-sized pure electric buses, and their demand market is more sustainable than small and medium-sized pure electric buses. From 2016 to 2020, the average annual compound growth rate of electric logistics vehicle output will exceed 50%.At the same time, Zhang Xiaofei pointed out that despite the bright future, we still need to be vigilant. At this stage, the pure electric logistics vehicle industry is still "troubled"The first is that the policy does not make people worry.The first is that the policy does not make people worry. The state has adjusted the subsidy method for special purpose vehicles, and proposed that the energy consumption per unit load weight Ekg should not be higher than 0.5, and the power consumption per ton of other pure electric special purpose vehicles (according to the test quality) should not exceed 13kWh. Subsidies for many models have declined to varying degrees, which has a greater impact on car companies, because many existing models do not meet the requirements.At present, the level of logistics vehicle manufacturers in China is uneven, and the quality of loaded batteries is also quite different. The introduction of policies can force the demand for lightweight of vehicle enterprises and the requirement for battery energy density. Therefore, it can be predicted that it will be the general trend for logistics vehicles to use ternary batteries with high energy density.Trouble 2 comes from the specification conditions of power battery. The supplementary notice issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on April 29, 2016 on the specifications and conditions of power batteries updated the inspection standards and put higher requirements on the test audit. This is the performance of the country's tightening policy and strict audit of the power battery industry.Up to now, China has announced four batches of 57 battery enterprises that meet the list of "Battery Specification". According to the battery loading situation of 285 batches of new energy special vehicles, only 64% car companies loaded batteries in the first four batches of catalogues.It can be said that which supplier car companies choose can directly affect the launch of new cars.Trouble three comes from the product access management rules. The access of new energy vehicle manufacturers is tied to battery enterprises, and the review requirements are increased from 17 to 20, of which the veto items are increased from 4 to 12.The access rules require that the driving range of pure electric vehicles should not be less than 80% within the three-package period, which poses a greater challenge to enterprises, and will greatly increase the battery procurement cost of enterprises. At the same time, it is necessary to provide services such as replacement, repair and maintenance, and the after-sales cost will increase.Vehicle companies are subject to battery companies, and there is great uncertainty. If the cooperative battery companies are not allowed, vehicle companies need to find qualified suppliers again, and their product access time will be delayed.Trouble four is that there is still a gap between supply and demand of power batteries. In 2015, the gap between supply and demand of power batteries reached 3GWh, and the actual delivery quantity of power battery factory was less than the order quantity.There are two reasons for the gap. First, the speed of capacity expansion is limited by equipment and other factors. Second, the domestic upstream materials are tight, which leads to the inability to exert production capacity; In 2016, the new capacity of power batteries will be intensive in commissioning date, and the gap of power batteries for logistics vehicles will be filled in the second half of the year.Trouble 5: Selection of power battery route In terms of technical specifications, power batteries in China are still mainly square, but the production capacity of soft bags and cylinders keeps increasing, and large-scale enterprises are building battery production lines with various shapes. In terms of material routes, ternary materials will be the main ones in the next few years, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for more than 50% by the end of 15 years, and the amount of ternary batteries is increasing. It is estimated that ternary batteries will account for about 70% of electric logistics vehicles in 2016.At the same time, there will be innovation in the operation mode of pure electric logistics vehicles in the future.For example, the medium-and long-term leasing model has emerged, and mobile internet and car networking platform services have been provided to complete logistics orders and market resource integration in the same city. It can focus on the freight business in the same city with large items or a large number of deliveries at one time, and can meet the needs of retail merchants and small and micro enterprises for freight vehicles when carrying out door-to-door service in the same city with low freight frequency, few times and uncertain delivery time.In the future, a large number of transportation companies will set up new energy logistics vehicle rental companies with well-known manufacturers in the form of holding shares. Manufacturers will directly rent logistics vehicles, and provide a certain number of logistics vehicles for dealers to use free of charge according to their own logistics needs or annual sales.In the future, customized new energy vehicles will gradually emerge, such as rescue vehicles for road rescue systems, mobile bar cars, mobile supermarket cars, mobile breakfast cars and mobile cold chain cars.Shenzhen Haituo Company will also shine brilliantly in the integration of the whole battery PACK integration automation production line system, which won the trust of electric vehicle battery manufacturers.